The pilot shortage is real, and getting more and more real every day. The way that things are now it is unrecognizable to someone like me that has been around for the really awful times of 9/11/01, $140 a barrel oil,and all of the bankruptcies and mergers of the 2000s. That is a great thing for someone with some time and all of the licences I need. To give a little background on me, I was a kid whose dad was was in the aviation world, so I got to be around airports in the early 90s and got his pilots licence four months after 9/11 and I remember my commercial ground instructor coming in and asking us "so how does it feel to watch your careers go down the tubes?" And for the most part he was right.
I know that there are lots of articles about the cause of the current and future pilot shortage that we have, things like low starting pay, bad schedules, and the big one, the "1500 rule", and while, yes these things are all factors that have and will continue to make the problem worse, I have had a front row seat to the coming pilot shortage and I can tell you that things are going to get very out of control in the next few years.
Lets start with the numbers. The Rand Corporation did a study that said that the major airlines right now need around 3,000 pilots a year, and by 2020 that number will go to 4,000-5,000, while the same report said that the regionals and 135 operators will need 5,000 pilots a year, and that number will steadily rise until 2021 when the report says that they will need 8,000 new pilots a year, just to keep up with retirements. (Tallman, 2015) That means that if all of the available flight instructors go into commercial flying, and all of their students become flight instructors and leave for the airlines when they get 1500 hours, and so on... they will still only be able to fill 2/3 of the pilot slots needed in the next 5 years. (Levine-Weinberg, 2015) These numbers are insane and spell big trouble for not only the airlines but for businesses in the smaller cities that are going to lose airline service in the next 15 years. These numbers are only for the domestic carriers, with more than 40% of new airliners going to Asia in the next 20 years going to Asia,(Harrison, 2015) they are facing a pilot shortage that may pale in comparison to ours.
Now for the big fight, what caused it. There are numerous articles that are saying that the biggest cause for the pilot shortage is the so called "1500 Rule" that was instituted in 2014, that said that First officer must have an ATP licence, to fly a part 121 operation, where previously they only needed a commercial pilots licence. This upped the required hours from 250 to 1500. (Fitzpatrick, 2015) Now in reality, no airlines were hiring at 250 hours but it was not uncommon to see people get hired with 500-600 hours.
The other big cause that is always pointed to is the low starting pay of regional pilots, and while I have to admit, $20,000 is not enough to live on, I do not think that that is as big a factor as they are making it out to be. I firmly believe that flying is one of the few careers that people would do for free if they were capable of. I have seen people with the flying sickness, the feeling that if they don't get to fly at least once a week, they start looking like caged bulls. I think that, especially at the beginning of your flight training, this love of flying is what gets you through the long, scary, and difficult pre-solo phase, past your cross countries and into your private licence. What happened to me was I had my private and was working toward my instrument licence and decided that I might as well get my commercial and CFI ratings, and make some of the money back that I had spent to get that far. Aviation is a passion that you try and figure a way to get paid to do. However if you do decide to pursue your passion, you have to make enough money to survive.
The number one largest factor in my mind leading to the pilot shortage is the cost of training. I can not tell you how many times I have given flight instruction to students that are in their late 40s- early 50s and they tell me the same story, " They started flying out of high school and loved it but... life got in the way, kids, marriage, ect." And the time that they are talking about was when flight training is a fraction of what it is now. Now a days it costs almost $150,000 to get a college degree and up to your ATP licence (Olinga, 2016). That is absolute insanity, I don't understand how anyone can afford that, and even if they can afford it, how do you justify spending that much money, knowing that you are not going to make a living wage until you have been in the airlines for a few years? Its just hard to justify that kind of expense while knowing that it may never pay off, especially if we have another 9-11 or oil prices spike again.
That brings me to my last point, a major reason that I didn't go, and don't plan going into the airlines, is I have seen what happens to pilots when the industry turns down. The biggest concessions always come from the pilots, be it their pay, their benefits, or their jobs, Pilots are almost always the first to be cut and cut the deepest when things turn bad, and getting those concessions back is impossible. I could fill pages of stories of friends that this has happened to with the airlines over the years, but lets just hope that we can get in and get enough seniority to be safe when this bubble of air travel and cheap gas pops. With all of these cuts and mergers and bad press at times, I have been able to see the role of airline pilot brought down from an enviable position, a master of all, to being treated as a glorified bus driver. I believe that this lack of prestige and recognition of the skills necessary to pilot an aluminum tube full of people all over the world, is the main reason that we are seeing the shortage of people wanting to be pilots.
References
Fitzpatrick, A. (2016, March 23). regional airlines hit by pilot shortage. Retrieved April 21, 2016, from http://time.com/4257940/pilot-shortage/
Harrison, V. (2015, July 21). The world needs more pilots: 28,000 new jobs a year - Jul. 21, 2015. Retrieved April 21, 2016, from http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/21/news/companies/boeing-pilots-demand/
Levine-Weinberg, A. (2015, August 10). why the U.S. airline pilot shortage is so hard to solve -- The Motley Fool. Retrieved April 21, 2016, from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/08/10/why-the-us-airline-pilot-shortage-is-so-hard-to-so.aspx
Olinga, L. (2016, March 7). pilot shortage hits US regional airlines. Retrieved April 21, 2016, from https://www.yahoo.com/news/pilot-shortage-hits-us-regional-airlines-042334238.html?ref=gs
Tallman, J. (2015, May 5). pilot shortage: yes or no? - AOPA. Retrieved from http://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2015/May/05/osu-pilot-supply-conference
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